ONE
of Britain’s most senior military strategists has warned that western
civilisation faces a threat on a par with the barbarian invasions that
destroyed the Roman empire.
In an apocalyptic vision of security dangers, Rear Admiral Chris
Parry said future migrations would be comparable to the Goths and
Vandals while north African "barbary" pirates could be attacking yachts
and beaches in the Mediterranean within 10 years.
Europe, including Britain, could be undermined by large immigrant
groups with little allegiance to their host countries — a "reverse
colonisation" as Parry described it. These groups would stay connected
to their homelands by the internet and cheap flights. The idea of
assimilation was becoming redundant, he said.
The warnings by Parry of what could threaten Britain over the next
30 years were delivered to senior officers and industry experts at a
conference last week. Parry, head of the development, concepts and
doctrine centre at the Ministry of Defence, is charged with identifying
the greatest challenges that will frame national security policy in the
future.
If a security breakdown occurred, he said, it was likely to be
brought on by environmental destruction and a population boom, coupled
with technology and radical Islam. The result for Britain and Europe,
Parry warned, could be "like the 5th century Roman empire facing the
Goths and the Vandals".
Parry pointed to the mass migration which disaster in the Third
World could unleash. "The diaspora issue is one of my biggest current
concerns," he said. "Globalisation makes assimilation seem redundant
and old-fashioned . . . [the process] acts as a sort of reverse
colonisation, where groups of people are self-contained, going back and
forth between their countries, exploiting sophisticated networks and
using instant communication on phones and the internet."
Third World instability would lick at the edges of the West as
pirates attacked holidaymakers from fast boats. "At some time in the
next 10 years it may not be safe to sail a yacht between Gibraltar and
Malta," said the admiral.
Parry, 52, an Oxford graduate who was mentioned in dispatches in the
Falklands war, is not claiming all the threats will come to fruition.
He is warning, however, of what is likely to happen if dangers are not
addressed by politicians.
Parry — who used the slogan "old dog, new tricks" when he commanded
the assault ship HMS Fearless — foresees wholesale moves by the armed
forces to robots, drones, nanotechnology, lasers, microwave weapons,
space-based systems and even "customised" nuclear and neutron bombs.
Lord Boyce, the former chief of the defence staff, welcomed Parry’s
analysis. "Bringing it together in this way shows we have some very
serious challenges ahead," he said. "The real problem is getting them
taken seriously at the top of the government."
Ancient Rome has been a subject of serious public discussion this
year. Boris Johnson, the Conservative MP and journalist, produced a
book and television series drawing parallels between the European Union
and the Roman empire. Terry Jones, the former Monty Python star,
meanwhile, has spoken up for the barbarians’ technological and social
achievements in a television series and has written:
"We actually owe far more to the so-called ‘barbarians’ than we do to the men in togas."
Parry, based in Shrivenham, Wiltshire, presented his vision at the
Royal United Services Institute in central London. He identified the
most dangerous flashpoints by overlaying maps showing the regions most
threatened by factors such as agricultural decline, booming youth
populations, water shortages, rising sea levels and radical Islam.
Parry predicts that as flood or starvation strikes, the most
dangerous zones will be Africa, particularly the northern half; most of
the Middle East and central Asia as far as northern China; a strip from
Nepal to Indonesia; and perhaps eastern China.
He pinpoints 2012 to 2018 as the time when the current global power
structure is likely to crumble. Rising nations such as China, India,
Brazil and Iran will challenge America’s sole superpower status.
This will come as "irregular activity" such as terrorism, organised
crime and "white companies" of mercenaries burgeon in lawless areas.
The effects will be magnified as borders become more porous and some areas sink beyond effective government control.
Parry expects the world population to grow to about 8.4 billion in
2035, compared with 6.4 billion today. By then some 68% of the
population will be urban, with some giant metropolises becoming
ungovernable. He warns that Mexico City could be an example.
In an effort to control population growth, some countries may be
tempted to copy China’s "one child" policy. This, with the widespread
preference for male children, could lead to a ratio of boys to girls of
as much as 150 to 100 in some countries. This will produce dangerous
surpluses of young men with few economic prospects and no female
company.
"When you combine the lower prospects for communal life with macho
youth and economic deprivation you tend to get trouble, typified by
gangs and organised criminal activity," said Parry. "When one thinks of
20,000 so-called jihadists currently fly-papered in Iraq, one shudders
to think where they might go next."
The competition for resources, Parry argues, may lead to a return to
"industrial warfare" as countries with large and growing male
populations mobilise armies, even including cavalry, while acquiring
high-technology weaponry from the West.
The subsequent mass population movements, Parry argues, could lead
to the "Rome scenario". The western Roman empire collapsed in the 4th
and 5th centuries as groups such as Ostrogoths, Visigoths, Suevi, Huns
and Vandals surged over its borders. The process culminated in the sack
of Rome in 455 by Geiseric the Lame, king of the Alans and Vandals, in
an invasion from north Africa.
Parry estimated at the conference there were already more than 70 diasporas in Britain.
In the future, he believes, large groups that become established in
Britain and Europe after mass migration may develop "communities of
interest" with unstable or anti-western regions.
Any technological advantage developed to deal with the threats was
unlikely to last. "I don’t think we can win in cyberspace — it’s like
the weather — but we need to have a raincoat and an umbrella to deal
with the effects," said Parry.
Some of the consequences would be beyond human imagination to
tackle. The examples he gave, tongue-in-cheek, include: "No wind on
land and sea; third of population dies instantly; perpetual darkness;
sores; Euphrates dries up ‘to clear way for kings from the east’;
earth’s core opens."
TOP STRATEGIST
Rear Admiral Chris Parry is the armed forces’ chief “blue skies” thinker.
Parry, 52, was educated at the independent Portsmouth grammar school
and at Jesus College, Oxford. During the Falklands war in 1982, he was
mentioned in dispatches while serving with the Fleet Air Arm on the
destroyer HMS Antrim.
Parry is one of Britain’s leading specialists on amphibious
warfare. He once commanded the assault ship HMS Fearless, was in charge
of amphibious warfare training at Portsmouth naval base and headed a
joint British-Dutch taskforce before moving to his post at the Ministry
of Defence.
The admiral heads the development, concepts and doctrine
centre, set up in 1998 and based at Shrivenham, Wiltshire. It has more
than 50 staff and is being expanded to include extra analysts.
